← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Oct 27, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 75% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 16% | 5.86 |
| Moreirense FC win | 9% | 11.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Moreirense FC +1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Borja Sainz · FC Porto |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 69' | 🟨 | André Ferreira · Moreirense FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Deniz Gül · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 118.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1564.44 | 1816.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.97 | -3.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 23.24 | 4.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 2.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 24.78 |
| state index | 0.05 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.65 |