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FC Alverca 0–4 Gil Vicente FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Oct 24, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC win41%2.41
Draw30%3.20
FC Alverca win29%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Alverca +0.2552%1.87
Gil Vicente FC +0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.58
Over39%2.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Luís Esteves · Gil Vicente FC
5'🟨Jonathan Buatu · Gil Vicente FC
27'🟨Sabit Abdulai · FC Alverca
31'🟨Santi García · Gil Vicente FC
35'🟨Kaiky Naves · FC Alverca
45'⚽Santi García · Gil Vicente FC
51'⚽Pablo Felipe · Gil Vicente FC
70'⚽Martin Fernández · Gil Vicente FC
71'🟨Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC
74'🟥Luís Esteves · Gil Vicente FC
83'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
6Shots12
2On target5
1Corners4
12Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC AlvercaGil Vicente FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.480.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.610.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.560.38
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.680.59
cards avg (last 5)3.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueFC Alverca Sports Complex
Gian Cabezas
· FC Alverca
89'🟨Facundo Cáseres · Gil Vicente FC
coach days84.00237.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.802.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)—2.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.04
dominance (last 5)0.470.58
elo1514.361565.43
elo momentum (last 5)29.3749.67
eye test v10.020.62
eye trend v10.150.23
first sub minute (last 10)65.1452.80
form points (last 5)9.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)—0.79
h2 goals (last 10)—0.40
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.30
keeper form v10.670.84
league points10.0016.00
league rank10.004.00
matches since blank6.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0077.00
possession avg (last 5)47.0046.00
rest days20.0920.20
scorer concentration0.140.50
season ppg1.252.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.803.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.8014.20
skill v1-0.240.06
solidity v1-0.190.82
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.864.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.40
squad age24.3125.89
state index0.320.86
sterile dominance v10.40-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.210.31
threat rate (last 3)0.180.32
threat rate (last 5)0.180.31
venue ppg (last 5)—1.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.610.99
xg for avg (last 5)1.081.80