← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Oct 25, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Luís Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 39% | 2.52 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora +0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Rio Ave FC +0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Oumar Ngom · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 28' | ⚽ | Paulo Moreira · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andreas Ndoj · Rio Ave FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | André Luiz · Rio Ave FC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marios Vrousai · Rio Ave FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jonathan Panzo · Rio Ave FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Cezary Miszta · Rio Ave FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ole Pohlmann · Rio Ave FC |
| 85' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
| Nikolaos Athanasiou · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sidny Lopes Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 116.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1438.15 | 1535.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.43 | 3.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 21.21 | 20.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 25.36 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.91 |