← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Oct 26, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 39% | 2.48 |
| CD Nacional win | 32% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paulinho Bóia · CD Nacional |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 63' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Costa · GD Estoril Praia |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Gomes · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.33 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 482.00 | 848.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1522.54 | 1460.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.15 | 41.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 22.84 | 22.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.35 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 25.09 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.57 |