← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Oct 4, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.19 |
| Moreirense FC win | 27% | 3.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Vasco Sousa · Moreirense FC |
| 15' | 🟨 | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 30' | 🟨 | Yan Maranhão · Moreirense FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 56' | ⚽ | Kiko · Moreirense FC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 62' | 🟥 | Vasco Sousa · Moreirense FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Mateja Stjepanović · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 826.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1448.64 | 1576.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.44 | 17.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 28.15 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.26 |