← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Oct 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 37% | 2.57 |
| CD Tondela win | 35% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC +0 | 52% | 1.93 |
| CD Tondela +0 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 25' | ⚽ | Dario Špikić · Rio Ave FC |
| 42' | ⚽ | André Luiz · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Francisco Petrasso · Rio Ave FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Bebeto · CD Tondela |
| 73' | ⚽ | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Rémy Vita · CD Tondela |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jonathan Panzo · Rio Ave FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Andreas Ndoj · Rio Ave FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Brayan Medina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 89' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 89' | 🟥 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tamás Nikitscher · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brayan Medina · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟥 | Brayan Medina · CD Tondela |
| coach days | 65.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1525.71 | 1423.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.25 | 8.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | — |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -1.89 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.77 | 26.73 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 1.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 1.48 |