← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Oct 5, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Luís Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| FC Arouca win | 23% | 4.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
| FC Famalicão +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | ⚽ | Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gil Dias · FC Famalicão |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jose Fontán · FC Arouca |
| 69' | 🟨 | Taichi Fukui · FC Arouca |
| 79' | 🟨 | Miguel Puche · FC Arouca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jose Fontán · FC Arouca |
| 84' | 🟥 | Jose Fontán · FC Arouca |
| 86' | ⚽ | Justin De Haas · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brian Mansilla · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 22 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| coach days | 369.00 | 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1535.54 | 1611.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.48 | -6.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.85 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.81 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.98 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.87 | 24.74 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.43 |