← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Oct 3, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 36% | 2.75 |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 35% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC +0 | 51% | 2.00 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 49% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.83 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Nodar Lominadze · GD Estoril Praia |
| 28' | ⚽ | Kaique Rocha · Casa Pia AC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pedro Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 37' | 🟨 | Miguel Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia AC |
| 59' | 🟨 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Daniel Azevedo · Casa Pia AC |
| 80' | 🟨 | David Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 84' | ⚽ | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ferro · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 63.00 | 459.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1531.03 | 1520.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.70 | -20.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 5.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.06 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 26.23 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.10 |