← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Sep 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Jose Bessa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 26% | 3.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Casa Pia AC −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia AC |
| 14' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Fahem Benaissa-Yahia · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kiko · Moreirense FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 68' | 🟨 | David Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Bernardo Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| coach days | 88.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1568.91 | 1538.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.10 | 4.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 4.80 | 5.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.62 |
| solidity v1 | 0.85 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.50 | 28.56 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 0.99 |