← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Sep 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 44% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| AVS win | 27% | 3.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AVS −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.65 |
| Over | 41% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Kikas · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 24' | ⚽ | Ianis Stoica · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kikas · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 59' | 🟨 | Rafael Barbosa · AVS |
| 77' | 🟥 | Paulo Vitor · AVS |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luan Patrick · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 86' | 🟨 | Oumar Ngom · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oumar Ngom · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟥 | Oumar Ngom · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaume Grau · AVS |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
| coach days | 88.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1433.48 | 1398.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.58 | -21.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 45.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| league points | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -1.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.38 | 25.96 |
| state index | -0.79 | -1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.81 |