← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Sep 27, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 52% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
| CD Tondela win | 20% | 5.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| CD Tondela −0.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over | 39% | 2.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Juan Rodríguez · CD Tondela |
| 35' | 🟨 | Christian Marques · CD Tondela |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rony Lopes · CD Tondela |
| 53' | 🟨 | Matheus Araújo · CD Santa Clara |
| 60' | ⚽ | Maranhão · CD Tondela |
| 63' | ⚽ | Siphephelo Sithole · CD Tondela |
| 73' | 🟨 | Cicero · CD Tondela |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Wendel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 85' | 🟨 | Siphephelo Sithole · CD Tondela |
| 89' | 🟨 | Maranhão · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 25 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bebeto · CD Tondela |
| coach days | 819.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1557.20 | 1407.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.22 | -13.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| league points | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.04 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 1.06 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 25.94 |
| state index | 0.39 | -1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.56 |