← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Sep 29, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 75% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.16 |
| FC Arouca win | 9% | 10.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +1.75 | 51% | 1.95 |
| FC Porto +1.75 | 49% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.63 |
| Under | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca |
| 6' | 🟨 | Martim Fernandes · FC Porto |
| 12' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 33' | 🟨 | Boris Popović · FC Arouca |
| 48' | 🟨 | Martim Fernandes · FC Porto |
| 48' | 🟥 | Martim Fernandes · FC Porto |
| 51' | ⚽ | Deniz Gül · FC Porto |
| 60' | ⚽ | Francisco Moura · FC Porto |
| 63' | 🟨 | Deniz Gül · FC Porto |
| 64' | 🟨 | Pablo Gozálbez · FC Arouca |
| 69' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 85' | ⚽ | Zaidu Sanusi · FC Porto |
| coach days | 363.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1543.62 | 1828.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.40 | 37.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 9.19 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 1.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.83 | 1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 24.74 |
| state index | -0.31 | 1.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 0.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.90 |