← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Sep 20, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Sergio Guelho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 |
| FC Alverca win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.55 |
| Over | 38% | 2.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | André Gomes · FC Alverca |
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Serginho · CD Santa Clara |
| 19' | ⚽ | Lincoln · FC Alverca |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marko Milovanović · FC Alverca |
| 28' | 🟨 | Alexsandro Amorim · FC Alverca |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lucas Soares · CD Santa Clara |
| 51' | 🟨 | Francisco Chissumba · FC Alverca |
| 52' | 🟨 | Serginho · CD Santa Clara |
| 60' | 🟨 | Adriano Firmino · CD Santa Clara |
| 68' | 🟨 | Luquinhas · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 87' | 🟨 | Anthony Carter · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | ⚽ | — · CD Santa Clara |
| coach days | 812.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1550.56 | 1489.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.06 | -10.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.68 |
| league points | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 7.80 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.30 | 24.46 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | — |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.34 |