⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Gil Vicente FC 2–0 GD Estoril Praia

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Sep 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Macedo, Portugal

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC win47%2.07
Draw29%3.34
GD Estoril Praia win24%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
GD Estoril Praia −0.553%1.85
Gil Vicente FC −0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽ (pen)Pablo Felipe · Gil Vicente FC
55'🟨Ricard Sánchez · GD Estoril Praia
66'🟨Facundo Cáseres · Gil Vicente FC
78'🟨Nodar Lominadze · GD Estoril Praia
79'🟨Pablo Felipe · Gil Vicente FC
85'⚽Joelson Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots7
3On target3
4Corners0
16Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGil Vicente FCGD Estoril Praia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.570.71
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Cidade de Barcelos
3.80
coach days204.00447.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.881.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.12
dominance (last 5)0.530.50
elo1556.691543.74
elo momentum (last 5)43.75-16.25
eye test v1-0.080.29
eye trend v10.440.24
first sub minute (last 10)52.9057.70
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.800.57
league points10.005.00
league rank5.0012.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4078.40
possession avg (last 5)43.6054.80
rest days6.908.10
scorer concentration0.600.17
season ppg2.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.600.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.0014.00
skill v1-0.530.38
solidity v10.89-0.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.60
squad age25.9926.63
state index0.65-0.07
sterile dominance v1-0.930.20
threat rate (last 10)0.280.21
threat rate (last 3)0.320.33
threat rate (last 5)0.320.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.031.46
xg for avg (last 5)1.111.55