← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Sep 21, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 44% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.23 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 26% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Casa Pia AC +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.59 |
| Over | 39% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | David Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 47' | ⚽ | Léo Realpe · FC Famalicão |
| 56' | 🟨 | Léo Realpe · FC Famalicão |
| 87' | 🟨 | Justin De Haas · FC Famalicão |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| coach days | 51.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1537.95 | 1616.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.22 | 17.75 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.86 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.36 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 23.37 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 0.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.37 |