← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Sep 13, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Torres
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.14 |
| Rio Ave FC win | 24% | 3.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Cedric Teguia · Moreirense FC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Diogo Travassos · Moreirense FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Marcelo · Moreirense FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | André Luiz · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 74.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1560.42 | 1531.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.39 | -1.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 14.80 | 12.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.80 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.95 | 24.45 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.26 |