← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Sep 14, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 46% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.31 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 25% | 3.92 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC −0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| FC Arouca −0.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.65 |
| Over | 41% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Tiago Morais · Casa Pia AC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Renato Nhaga · Casa Pia AC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Fahem Benaissa-Yahia · Casa Pia AC |
| 67' | ⚽ | David Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dylan Nandín · FC Arouca |
| 80' | 🟨 | David Simão · FC Arouca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Iyad Mohamed · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| coach days | 348.00 | 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1553.61 | 1518.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.30 | -25.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 27.70 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 0.68 |