← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Sep 12, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: L. Filipe
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Alverca win | 46% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| CD Tondela win | 25% | 3.88 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CD Tondela −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| FC Alverca −0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | FC Alverca Sports Complex |