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CD Tondela 2–2 GD Estoril Praia

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Aug 31, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Guelho

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CD Tondela win35%3.03
GD Estoril Praia win35%2.85
Draw30%3.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CD Tondela +050%2.11
GD Estoril Praia +050%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.67
Over43%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Juan Rodríguez · CD Tondela
26'🟨Kévin Boma · GD Estoril Praia
31'🟨Felix Bacher · GD Estoril Praia
43'⚽Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia
68'🟨Pedro Amaral · GD Estoril Praia
73'⚽ (pen)Tiago Manso · CD Tondela
90'⚽Ivan Cavaleiro · CD Tondela
90'⚽Rafik Guitane · GD Estoril Praia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots21
4On target5
3Corners4
8Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCD TondelaGD Estoril Praia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.56
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
box share (last 5)0.620.67
cards avg (last 5)1.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio João Cardoso
coach days
61.00
426.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.602.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.14
dominance (last 5)0.420.46
elo1413.451540.60
elo momentum (last 5)-18.61-1.25
eye test v1-0.140.04
eye trend v1-0.020.25
first sub minute (last 10)53.7057.10
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.650.60
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet20.002.00
matches since win9.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6081.00
possession avg (last 5)38.4056.80
rest days7.7914.90
season ppg0.000.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.409.20
skill v1-0.730.63
solidity v1-1.600.00
sot against avg (last 5)6.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
squad age24.3926.00
state index-1.31-0.01
sterile dominance v1-0.401.14
threat rate (last 10)0.220.16
threat rate (last 3)0.260.15
threat rate (last 5)0.240.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40
xg against avg (last 5)2.021.37
xg for avg (last 5)0.751.54