← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Aug 30, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 44% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| CD Nacional win | 26% | 3.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Paulinho Bóia · CD Nacional |
| 42' | ⚽ | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 51' | 🟨 | Liziero · CD Nacional |
| 58' | 🟨 | Renato Nhaga · Casa Pia AC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lucas França · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ulisses · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| coach days | 29.00 | 791.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1541.17 | 1418.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.80 | -14.21 |
| eye test v1 | -1.44 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.90 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 27.12 |
| state index | -0.25 | -1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 1.05 |