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GD Estoril Praia 0–1 CD Santa Clara

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Sep 6, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Nogueira

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CD Santa Clara win40%2.40
Draw31%3.10
GD Estoril Praia win28%3.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
GD Estoril Praia +0.2552%1.88
CD Santa Clara +0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.52
Over36%2.70

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'🟨Patrick de Paula · GD Estoril Praia
53'⚽ (pen)Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara
56'🟨Paulo Victor · CD Santa Clara
57'🟨João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia
71'🟨Tiago Brito · GD Estoril Praia
78'🟨Pedro Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots16
4On target4
5Corners7
16Fouls11
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGD Estoril PraiaCD Santa Clara
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.660.63
cards avg (last 5)3.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio António Coimbra da Mota
1.20
coach days432.00798.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.804.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.401.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.183.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.17
dominance (last 5)0.480.64
elo1538.691530.34
elo momentum (last 5)0.10-32.27
eye test v10.18-0.14
eye trend v10.14-0.44
first sub minute (last 10)56.6057.00
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.570.78
league points2.001.00
league rank14.0016.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8081.20
possession avg (last 5)54.8052.00
rest days6.216.00
season ppg0.670.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.405.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.4013.00
skill v10.400.29
solidity v1-0.191.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.80
squad age25.9828.75
state index-0.03-0.41
sterile dominance v10.530.18
threat rate (last 10)0.180.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.19
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.551.11
xg for avg (last 5)1.641.32