← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Aug 25, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: R. Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 38% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.08 |
| FC Alverca win | 31% | 3.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora +0 | 56% | 1.75 |
| FC Alverca +0 | 44% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.59 |
| Over | 39% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Joao Gastao · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 21' | 🟨 | Luan Patrick · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 23' | 🟨 | Kaiky Naves · FC Alverca |
| 37' | ⚽ | Cédric Nuozzi · FC Alverca |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marko Milovanović · FC Alverca |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marko Milovanović · FC Alverca |
| 45' | ⚽ | Fábio Ronaldo · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 47' | 🟥 | Paulo Moreira · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kaiky Naves · FC Alverca |
| 62' | 🟥 | Kaiky Naves · FC Alverca |
| 63' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | — |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
| Sidny Lopes Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 67' | 🟨 | Sergi Gómez · FC Alverca |
| 68' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · FC Alverca |
| 75' | 🟨 | Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jovane Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| coach days | 55.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | — |
| elo | 1438.11 | 1484.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.98 | — |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | — |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | — |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | — |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | — |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 76.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 37.50 |
| rest days | 8.99 | 8.09 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | — |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| squad age | 25.36 | 23.79 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | — |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.58 |