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FC Porto 4–0 Casa Pia AC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Aug 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Guelho

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto win78%1.22
Draw15%6.35
Casa Pia AC win6%15.73

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto −1.7551%1.94
Casa Pia AC −1.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Borja Sainz · FC Porto
25'⚽William Gomes · FC Porto
28'🟨William Gomes · FC Porto
40'⚽Nehuén Pérez · FC Porto
51'🟨Victor Froholdt · FC Porto
65'🟨Jan Bednarek · FC Porto
67'⚽Borja Sainz · FC Porto
90'🟨Sebastián Pérez · Casa Pia AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
20Shots7
7On target0
7Corners2
11Fouls8
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC PortoCasa Pia AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.670.66
cards avg (last 5)2.404.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Do Dragão
coach days84.0023.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-4.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.007.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.402.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.981.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.05
dominance (last 5)0.600.27
elo1790.661546.73
elo momentum (last 5)27.4018.38
eye test v10.21-0.95
eye trend v1-0.010.34
first sub minute (last 10)60.5057.40
form points (last 5)15.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v1—0.70
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.6072.80
possession avg (last 5)63.8042.40
rest days5.919.10
season ppg3.001.50
shot diff avg (last 5)4.80-12.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.606.20
skill v11.29-0.92
solidity v10.37-0.27
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.002.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.80
squad age25.4927.62
state index1.49-0.00
sterile dominance v11.390.20
threat rate (last 10)0.220.14
threat rate (last 3)0.230.15
threat rate (last 5)0.210.15
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.371.80
xg for avg (last 5)1.410.94