← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Aug 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Guelho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 78% | 1.22 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.35 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 6% | 15.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −1.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Casa Pia AC −1.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Borja Sainz · FC Porto |
| 25' | ⚽ | William Gomes · FC Porto |
| 28' | 🟨 | William Gomes · FC Porto |
| 40' | ⚽ | Nehuén Pérez · FC Porto |
| 51' | 🟨 | Victor Froholdt · FC Porto |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · FC Porto |
| 67' | ⚽ | Borja Sainz · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 84.00 | 23.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1790.66 | 1546.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.40 | 18.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 9.10 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | -0.92 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.49 | 27.62 |
| state index | 1.49 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.39 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 0.94 |