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FC Arouca 3–3 Rio Ave FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Aug 23, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Carvalho

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Arouca win41%2.37
Rio Ave FC win30%3.24
Draw29%3.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rio Ave FC −0.2552%1.88
FC Arouca −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.81
Over47%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Hyun-ju Lee · FC Arouca
24'⚽Jose Fontán · FC Arouca
34'🟨Ivan Barbero · FC Arouca
36'🟨Nelson Abbey · Rio Ave FC
38'🟨Andreas Ndoj · Rio Ave FC
40'🟨Jose Fontán · FC Arouca
48'⚽Clayton · Rio Ave FC
64'⚽Dario Špikić · Rio Ave FC
75'⚽Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca
76'⚽Clayton · Rio Ave FC
90'⚽Naïs Djouahra

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots15
6On target7
4Corners2
13Fouls17
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC AroucaRio Ave FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.620.61
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Municipal de Arouca
· FC Arouca
coach days326.0022.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.732.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.440.49
elo1552.021524.50
elo momentum (last 5)12.39-6.58
eye test v10.050.45
eye trend v10.190.39
first sub minute (last 10)55.2059.10
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.760.71
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4080.40
possession avg (last 5)56.4051.60
rest days6.006.21
season ppg1.501.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.20-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.6013.60
skill v10.410.16
solidity v10.450.25
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.60
squad age24.8124.08
state index0.16-0.18
sterile dominance v10.810.14
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.041.08
xg for avg (last 5)1.091.22