← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Aug 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pereira
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.28 |
| CD Nacional win | 28% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 51% | 1.99 |
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | André Luiz · Rio Ave FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Matheus Dias · CD Nacional |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ulisses · CD Nacional |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ulisses · CD Nacional |
| 39' | 🟥 | Ulisses · CD Nacional |
| 73' | 🟨 | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Filipe Soares · CD Nacional |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| coach days | 16.00 | 778.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1529.09 | 1416.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.09 | -17.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | — | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.13 | 27.71 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.01 |