← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Aug 15, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Ramalho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 34% | 2.88 |
| AVS win | 34% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC +0 | 51% | 1.98 |
| AVS +0 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.61 |
| Over | 39% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Cristian Castro · AVS |
| 18' | 🟨 | Aderllan Santos · AVS |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jaume Grau · AVS |
| 27' | 🟨 | Iyad Mohamed · Casa Pia AC |
| 31' | ⚽ | Oluwakorede Osundina · Casa Pia AC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Guilherme Neiva · AVS |
| 80' | 🟨 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Svensson · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AVS | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| coach days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| elo | 1420.02 | 1534.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.25 | -12.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 5.79 | 6.80 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 5.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | -1.13 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.56 | 29.29 |
| state index | -1.01 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.87 |