← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Aug 9, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 35% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.92 |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 32% | 3.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Gil Vicente FC +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.50 |
| Over | 36% | 2.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Pablo Felipe · Gil Vicente FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mohamed Bamba · Gil Vicente FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luís Esteves · Gil Vicente FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Filipe Soares · CD Nacional |
| 76' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Andrew · Gil Vicente FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ulisses · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Rodrigues · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Felipe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 770.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1431.05 | 1503.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.46 | 26.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.59 | 1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 24.85 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.22 |