← Premier League 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M Jones
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 54% | 59% | 1.81 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.86 | fair |
| Swansea win | 20% | 17% | 4.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.