← Premier League 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A Marriner
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Arsenal win | 62% | 68% | 1.57 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.30 | fair |
| Fulham win | 15% | 16% | 6.40 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.