← Premier League 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M Jones
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Tottenham win | 64% | 67% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.34 | value: +4% |
| Fulham win | 13% | 9% | 7.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.