← Premier League 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M Atkinson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Liverpool win | 55% | 47% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.99 | value: +13% |
| Wigan win | 20% | 25% | 4.84 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.