← Premier League 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H Webb
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Chelsea win | 69% | 82% | 1.40 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 5.00 | fair |
| QPR win | 11% | 5% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 11 |
| 18 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.