← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, May 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: N. Walsh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 45% | 34% | 2.05 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 28% | 39% | 3.25 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Motherwell −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 48% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Motherwell |
| 35' | ⚽ | Lukas Fadinger · Motherwell |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamie McGrath · Hibernian |
| 53' | 🟨 | Josh Mulligan · Hibernian |
| 53' | 🟨 | Regan Charles-Cook · Motherwell |
| 66' | 🟨 | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 67' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Motherwell |
| 67' | 🟥 | Elliot Watt · Motherwell |
| 71' | 🟨 | Miguel Changa Chaiwa · Hibernian |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lukas Fadinger · Motherwell |
| 84' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Easter Road |
| 🟨 |
| Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nicky Cadden · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 166.00 | 166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1604.84 | 1566.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.48 | -9.85 |
| eye test v1 | -1.42 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 57.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 30.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 2.69 | 2.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.31 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.64 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 26.93 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.06 |