← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, May 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Robertson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 59% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
| Hearts win | 19% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Celtic −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Alistair Johnston · Celtic |
| 38' | 🟨 | Michael Steinwender · Hearts |
| 43' | ⚽ | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Arne Engels · Celtic |
| 53' | 🟨 | Benjamin Nygren · Celtic |
| 58' | 🟨 | Auston Trusty · Celtic |
| 77' | 🟨 | Cameron Devlin · Hearts |
| 87' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 | Callum McGregor · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
| Marcelo Saracchi · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 90' | ⚽ | Callum Osmand · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 288.00 | 166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1762.66 | 1684.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.90 | 34.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 79.00 | 80.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 2.69 | 2.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 2.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 1.27 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 28.98 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.20 |