← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Wed, May 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Beaton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 59% | 53% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.33 | value: +11% |
| Motherwell win | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic +0.75 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Motherwell +0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 39% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Elliot Watt · Motherwell |
| 41' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 58' | ⚽ | Benjamin Nygren · Celtic |
| 61' | 🟨 | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 85' | ⚽ | Liam Gordon · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Longelo · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Nicholson · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kelechi Iheanacho · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Scales · Celtic |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Kelechi Iheanacho · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| coach days | 163.00 | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1572.72 | 1756.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.63 | 29.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 58.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 1.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.90 | 1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 26.98 |
| state index | -0.24 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 0.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.95 |