← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: N. Walsh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 53% | 49% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| Rangers win | 23% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Rangers −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Mikey Moore · Rangers |
| 19' | 🟨 | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
| 23' | ⚽ | Yang Hyun-Jun · Celtic |
| 39' | 🟨 | Alistair Johnston · Celtic |
| 53' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 57' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 67' | 🟨 | Auston Trusty · Celtic |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kieran Tierney · Celtic |
| 78' | 🟨 | Tuur Rommens · Rangers |
| 79' | 🟨 | Liam Scales · Celtic |
| 82' | 🟨 | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 25 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
| 89' | 🟨 | Reo Hatate · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 282.00 |
| 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 4.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1730.34 | 1698.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.66 | -6.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 73.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | 1.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.94 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 24.94 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 2.46 |