β Scottish Premiership 2025-26 Β· Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Nicolson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 45% | 39% | 2.05 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 27% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen β0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Dundee United β0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | π¨ | Iurie Iovu Β· Dundee United |
| 19' | β½ | Stuart Armstrong Β· Aberdeen |
| 27' | π¨ | Emmanuel Agyei Β· Dundee United |
| 62' | π¨ | Dennis Geiger Β· Aberdeen |
| 63' | π¨ | Ivan DolΔek Β· Dundee United |
| 73' | π¨ | Ryan Strain Β· Dundee United |
| 84' | π¨ | Emmanuel Agyei Β· Dundee United |
| 84' | π₯ | Emmanuel Agyei Β· Dundee United |
| 88' | β½ | Toyosi Olusanya Β· Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| coach days | 189.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1431.22 | 1483.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.27 | 15.76 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.73 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 37.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 25.22 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -2.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.77 |