β Scottish Premiership 2025-26 Β· Sun, May 3, 11:00 AM UTC Β· ref: D. Dickinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 63% | 51% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 31% | 4.75 | value: +47% |
| Hibernian win | 18% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic +1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Hibernian +1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 57% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 43% | 2.50 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | π₯ | Jamie McGrath Β· Hibernian |
| 41' | β½ | Daizen Maeda Β· Celtic |
| 45' | β½ | Joe Newell Β· Hibernian |
| 48' | π¨ | Jordan Obita Β· Hibernian |
| 54' | π¨ | Josh Campbell Β· Hibernian |
| 54' | π¨ | Liam Scales Β· Celtic |
| 72' | β½ | Kelechi Iheanacho Β· Celtic |
| 90' | π¨ | Ante Ε uto Β· Hibernian |
| 90' | π¨ | Luke McCowan Β· Celtic |
| 90' | π¨ | Arne Engels Β· Celtic |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 27 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 13 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Easter Road |
| coach days | 153.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1583.35 | 1737.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.40 | -5.35 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | β |
| league points | 51.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 1.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.79 | 27.39 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.83 |