← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 26, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Robertson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 36% | 43% | 2.57 | value: +10% |
| Hibernian win | 35% | 29% | 2.65 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Hibernian +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 48% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 14' | 🟥 | Raphael Sallinger · Hibernian |
| 45' | 🟨 | Felix Passlack · Hibernian |
| 45' | 🟨 | Warren O'Hora · Hibernian |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stephen Kingsley · Hearts |
| 48' | 🟨 | Felix Passlack · Hibernian |
| 48' | 🟥 | Felix Passlack · Hibernian |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Warren O'Hora · Hearts |
| 86' | ⚽ | Blair Spittal · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rocky Bushiri Kiranga · Hibernian |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Newell · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 23 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Easter Road |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Leonard · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 146.00 |
| 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1578.16 | 1649.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.43 | -6.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 51.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 15.06 | 15.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.43 |