← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Hardie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 44% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +6% |
| Dundee win | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Dundee −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Brad Halliday · Dundee |
| 14' | ⚽ | Joe Hugill · Kilmarnock |
| 24' | ⚽ | Simon Murray · Dundee |
| 33' | ⚽ | Michael Schjønning-Larsen · Kilmarnock |
| 38' | 🟨 | Robbie Deas · Kilmarnock |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ethan Hamilton · Dundee |
| 75' | 🟨 | Aaron Tshibola · Kilmarnock |
| 81' | ⚽ | Scott Wright · Dundee |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jamie Brandon · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Stanger · Kilmarnock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 24 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rugby Park |
| coach days | 131.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1423.02 | 1432.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.63 | 8.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | -2.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.30 | 26.09 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 2.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.06 |