← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. MacDermid
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 49% | 45% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +15% |
| Motherwell win | 23% | 21% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Hearts −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Paul McGinn · Motherwell |
| 50' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Longelo · Motherwell |
| 61' | ⚽ | Cláudio Braga · Hearts |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Said · Motherwell |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierre Landry Kabore · Hearts |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pierre Landry Kabore · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
| coach days | 131.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1650.08 | 1575.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.40 | -28.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 67.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.82 |
| solidity v1 | 1.38 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.22 | 27.26 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.09 |