← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Beaton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 71% | 71% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +5% |
| Dundee United win | 12% | 9% | 8.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee United −1.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Rangers −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 69% | 1.53 | value: +6% |
| Under | 38% | 31% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Thelo Aasgaard · Rangers |
| 30' | ⚽ | Ryan Don Naderi · Rangers |
| 40' | ⚽ | Dujon Sterling · Rangers |
| 45' | ⚽ | Amar Fatah · Dundee United |
| 52' | ⚽ | Thelo Aasgaard · Rangers |
| 59' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Agyei · Dundee United |
| 68' | 🟨 | Krisztián Keresztes · Dundee United |
| 72' | ⚽ | Zachary Sapsford · Dundee United |
| 85' | ⚽ | Bojan Miovski · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 14 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rangers | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ibrox Stadium |
| coach days | 277.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.05 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1724.18 | 1491.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.59 | 21.50 |
| eye test v1 | 1.39 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.87 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 63.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 59.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 13.84 | 13.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | -1.40 |
| solidity v1 | 1.00 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.85 | 24.79 |
| state index | 1.06 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -2.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.31 | 1.54 |