← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Beaton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 56% | 64% | 1.66 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 21% | 15% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Motherwell −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · Celtic |
| 32' | ⚽ | Elijah Just · Motherwell |
| 38' | ⚽ | Yang Hyun-Jun · Celtic |
| 50' | 🟨 | Colby Donovan · Celtic |
| 63' | 🟨 | Reo Hatate · Celtic |
| 64' | 🟨 | Elijah Just · Motherwell |
| 71' | 🟥 | Emmanuel Longelo · Motherwell |
| 72' | 🟨 | Calum Ward · Motherwell |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Tomáš Čvančara · Celtic |
| 79' | ⚽ | Yang Hyun-Jun · Celtic |
| 82' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
| 🟨 |
| Tony Ralston · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 225.00 | 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1742.95 | 1598.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.87 | 18.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.92 |
| league points | 58.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 9.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.80 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 1.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 26.94 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.77 |