← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. McFarlane
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 53% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
| Dundee win | 22% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell +0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Dundee +0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 53% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 47% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Tony Yogane · Dundee |
| 35' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Said · Motherwell |
| 48' | 🟨 | Luke Graham · Dundee |
| 70' | 🟨 | Finlay Robertson · Dundee |
| 78' | ⚽ | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ethan Hamilton · Dundee |
| 84' | ⚽ | Fin Roberts · Dundee |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron Congreve · Dundee |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paul McGinn · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Dens Park |
| coach days | 96.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1427.78 | 1612.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.24 | 38.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 1.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.14 | 27.55 |
| state index | -0.14 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.78 |