← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Hardie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 44% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
| Dundee win | 29% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Dundee +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Owen Elding · Hibernian |
| 15' | ⚽ | Simon Murray · Dundee |
| 43' | 🟨 | Warren O'Hora · Hibernian |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jamie McGrath · Hibernian |
| 72' | ⚽ | Luke Graham · Dundee |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ante Šuto · Hibernian |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ethan Hamilton · Dundee |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rocky Bushiri Kiranga · Hibernian |
| 89' | ⚽ | Jamie McGrath · Hibernian |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Dens Park |
| ⚽ |
| Cameron Congreve · Dundee |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 89.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1424.12 | 1617.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.50 | 22.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 45.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 27.25 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.17 |