← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lee
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 73% | 74% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
| Livingston win | 10% | 9% | 9.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers +1.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Livingston +1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Brooklyn Kabongolo · Livingston |
| 26' | 🟨 | Daniel Finlayson · Livingston |
| 55' | ⚽ | Lewis Smith · Livingston |
| 60' | 🟥 | Cristian Montano · Livingston |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nicolas Raskin · Rangers |
| 81' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Fernandez · Rangers |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jérôme Prior · Livingston |
| 88' | 🟨 | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mikey Moore · Rangers |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stevie May · Livingston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 31 |
| 3 | On target | 14 |
| 3 | Corners | 15 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livingston | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Home of the Set Fare Arena |
| coach days | 83.00 | 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1294.54 | 1725.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.26 | 4.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| league points | 12.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | 0.72 |
| solidity v1 | -1.96 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.23 | 25.05 |
| state index | -2.04 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.61 |