← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 42% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| St Mirren win | 27% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| St Mirren +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Killian Phillips · St Mirren |
| 14' | ⚽ | Elijah Just · Motherwell |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Tawanda Maswanhise · Motherwell |
| 41' | 🟨 | Alexander Gogić · St Mirren |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Said · Motherwell |
| 52' | 🟥 | Richard King · St Mirren |
| 58' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Longelo · Motherwell |
| 66' | ⚽ | Eythor Bjørgolfsson · Motherwell |
| 87' | 🟨 | Miguel Freckleton · St Mirren |
| 90' | 🟨 | Keanu Baccus · St Mirren |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
| coach days | 20.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1440.30 | 1589.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.41 | 27.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.70 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.91 |
| league points | 23.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.19 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 1.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 26.06 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.76 |