← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Beaton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United win | 50% | 47% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 24% | 25% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Dundee United −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Joe Hugill · Kilmarnock |
| 45' | 🟨 | Iurie Iovu · Dundee United |
| 54' | 🟨 | Aaron Tshibola · Kilmarnock |
| 57' | 🟨 | Michael Schjønning-Larsen · Kilmarnock |
| 74' | ⚽ | Amar Fatah · Dundee United |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jack Thomson · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marley Watkins · Kilmarnock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Tannadice Park |
| coach days | 82.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1472.96 | 1415.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.45 | 11.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 28.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -2.02 | -2.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 25.58 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.43 | 2.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.94 |