← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. McLean
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 49% | 48% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Dundee win | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Aberdeen −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Kevin Nisbet · Aberdeen |
| 15' | 🟨 | Imari Samuels · Dundee |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kevin Nisbet · Aberdeen |
| 39' | 🟥 | Liam Morrison · Aberdeen |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Murray · Dundee |
| 45' | 🟨 | Simon Murray · Dundee |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joel Cotterill · Dundee |
| 68' | ⚽ | Kevin Nisbet · Aberdeen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marko Lazetić · Aberdeen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nicky Devlin · Aberdeen |
| 84' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| Ethan Hamilton · Dundee |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 112.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1434.29 | 1411.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.95 | -18.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 28.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -2.26 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.60 | 25.79 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.35 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.06 |