← Scottish Premiership 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 15, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Robertson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 51% | 54% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
| Hearts win | 24% | 20% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Hearts −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Ageu · Hearts |
| 16' | ⚽ | Marc Leonard · Hearts |
| 19' | ⚽ (og) | Michael Steinwender · Rangers |
| 29' | 🟨 | Andreas Skov Olsen · Rangers |
| 30' | ⚽ | Cláudio Braga · Hearts |
| 39' | ⚽ | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marc Leonard · Hearts |
| 57' | ⚽ | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
| 59' | 🟨 | Harry Milne · Hearts |
| 83' | 🟨 | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohammed Diomande · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rangers | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Ibrox Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Djeidi Gassama · Rangers |
| 90' | ⚽ | Youssef Chermiti · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 229.00 |
| 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1698.86 | 1662.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.58 | 8.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.80 |
| league points | 52.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.85 | 4.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | 1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 23.61 | — |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.83 |